Analysis of the Cattle and Beef Markets Pre and Post BSE - Final Report to the Competition Bureau

Appendix

Data Sources

Most of the data used in this report were taken from the George Morris Centre’s own data base which is compiled by daily, weekly, monthly and annual collection of cattle industry statistics from a wide variety of sources. Most of the data results from ongoing collection from sources such as the Texas Cattle Feeders Association, Canfax (the market information arm of the Canadian Cattlemen’s Association), the United States Department of Agriculture and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada. The most important source for this report was Canfax. All data obtained from Canfax results from George Morris Centre membership in Canfax and access to members only data sets either through special requests or at the Canfax website (Canfax.ca). Canfax’s source for live animal trade is the USDA’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS). With that noted, the following is a listing of the sources of each of the tables and graphs in the report.

Tables

Table 1: Canadian Beef Cattle Distribution, Source: Statistics Canada, Livestock Estimating Unit, July 1 2004 Inventory, Cattle Statistics 23-012XIE.

Table 2: Canadian Cattle Marketing Volumes, Source: Slaughter data - Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, http://www.agr.gc.ca/misb/aisd/redmeat/almrcalendar.htm, and export data Canfax.

Table 3: Composition and Location of the Canadian Cow Herd, January 1 1997-2004 (‘000s), Source: Statistics Canada, Livestock and Animal Products Section, Cattle Statistics 23-012XIE.

Table 4: US Imports of Canadian Cows and Bulls, Source: Canfax.

Table 5: Fourth Quarter 2005 Marketings, Source: Canfax.

Table 6: Projected Capacities, Source: Canfax and Industry Estimates, Cattlemen Magazine January 2005.

Table 7: Alberta Fed Cattle Marketing Channels, 1998-2003, Source: Canfax.

Graphs

Figure 1: Industry flow chart, Source: George Morris Centre.

Figure 2: Average Monthly Cow and Bull Exports, 1997-2002, Source: Canfax.

Figure 3: Monthly Canadian Cow Slaughter, Source: Canfax.

Figure 4: Average Monthly Canadian Cow Slaughter (seasonality), Source: Canfax.

Figure 5: US Cow Slaughter (source: Kansas State, Ag Manager Info, http:/ /www.agmanager.info/livestock/marketing/database/default.asp).

Figure 6: Canadian Cow Marketings, Source: Trade- Canfax and slaughter - Agriculture and Agri- Food Canada, Red Meat Section, Annual Livestock Market Review).

Figure 7: US and Canadian Cow Pricing 1998-2008, Source: USDA Agricultural Marketing Services (AMS) and Canfax.

Figure 8: Western and Eastern Cow Price Relationships, Source: Canfax.

Figure 9: Cow Price Seasonal US-Canada Relationships, 1998-2002, Source: USDA AMS and Canfax.

Figure 10: US and Canadian Cow Pricing, Source: USDA AMS and Canfax.

Figure 11: Ontario vs US Central 85% CL Prices, Source: USDA AMS and Canfax.

Figure 12: 85’s vs D1,D2 Cows, Source: Canfax.

Figure 13: 1997-02 Average Domestic Weekly vs Aust/NZ 85 CL , Source: Canfax.

Figure 14: 1997-02 Weekly Domestic vs Aust/NZ Pricing Relationship, Source: Canfax.

Figure 15: Cow Inventory, Source: Statistics Canada.

Figure 16: Canadian Beef Exports, Source: Statistics Canada, Cansim Table 30037, Meat Production Supply and Disappearance in Canada.

Figure 17: Canadian Beef Demand, Source Statistics Canada, Cansim Table 30037, Meat Production Supply and Disappearance in Canada and Cansim Table 3260001, Consumer Price Index.

Figure 18: Canadian Cattle Inventory 1950-2002, Source: Statistics Canada, Cattle Statistics, 23- 012XIE.

Figure 19: Canadian & US Beef Cow Comparison, Source: Statistics Canada Cattle Statistics, 23- 012XIE and United States Department of Agriculture, National Agricultural Statistics Service, Cattle Inventory.

Figure 20: 10-Year Average Texas and Alberta Price, Source Texas Cattle Feeders Association and Canfax.

Figure 21: Retail, Packer and Farm Beef Price Indexes 1993-2002, Source Statistics Canada, Cansim Tables 3260001, 3300006 and 3290040.

Figure 22: Alberta-Texas Fed Average Cattle Spread, 98-02, Source: Texas Cattle Feeders Association and Canfax.

Figure 23: US and Canadian Cow Pricing 1998-2002, Source: USDA Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS), http://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/sf_LS115.txt, and Canfax.

Figure 24: Alberta 8-900 Weight Feeder Basis, 98-02, Source; Canfax.

Figure 25: Alberta - Kansas Prices 98-03, Source: Canfax and Kansas State University Ag Manager data set, http:/ /www.agmanager.info/livestock/marketing/database/default.asp.

Figure 26: US Beef Supply vs. Price, Source: Source: USDA National Agricultural Statistical Service, http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/reports/nassr/livestock/pls-bb/2004/</ A>, and Texas Cattle Feeders Association.

Figure 27: Beef Storage Stocks, Source: Statistics Canada, Stocks of Frozen and Chilled Meat, 23- 009-XWE.

Figure 28: Western Canada, Fed Cattle Exports, Source Canfax.

Figure 29: Cattle Inventory, Source: Statistics Canada, Cattle Statistics, Inventory 23-012XIE.

Figure 30: Canadian Beef, Veal and Offal Exports, Source: Statistics Canada, World Trade Atlas, via Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, Red Meat Section.

Figure 31: Canadian Cattle Slaughter, Source: Canfax.

Figure 32: Canadian Marketings vs. Capacity, Source: Canfax.

Figure 33: Alberta – Texas Fed Cattle Spread, Source: Canfax and Texas Cattle Feeders Association.

Figure 34: Alberta Slaughter vs. Price, Source: Canfax.

Figure 35: US and Canadian Cow Pricing, Source: USDA Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS), http://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/sf_LS115.txt, and Canfax.

Figure 36: Canada – US Drop Value Differentials, Source: Canfax and USDA National Carlot Meat Trade Review, http://www.ams.usda.gov/mn reports/NW_LS850.txt.

Figure 37: Farm, Packer and Retail Price Indices, Source Statistics Canada Cansim Tables 3260001, 3300006 and 3290040.

Figure 38: Steer Share of Retail Average, Source: Steers – Canfax, Retail Prices - Statistics Canada, Cansim Table 3260012.